A new winter weather outlook, published by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, suggests that we may be in for a winter dominated by La Niña.
La Niña is expected to become more prominent in the coming month and strengthen as winter approaches. The impacts of La Niña vary depending on your location.
The jet stream has a significant impact on weather patterns across different regions. In the southern states, it can result in drought conditions as it diverts rain-filled storms away from the area. Conversely, in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley, the jet stream brings in abundant moisture, leading to increased precipitation.
The updated winter outlook reveals the emergence of those usual patterns, indicating a higher chance of above-average precipitation in regions such as the Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes region, and Ohio Valley.
Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming are most likely to experience above-average rainfall or snowfall. Additionally, there is a leaning towards above-average precipitation in Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and parts of Iowa, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and New York.
The type of precipitation, whether it will be rain or snow, is uncertain at this point. It will depend on the temperature when the storms arrive. The regions with the highest likelihood of snowfall are the Pacific Northwest and the areas along the U.S.-Canada border. These regions are expected to have a colder-than-average winter.
This year’s La Niña is expected to be weak and short, which adds an extra layer of complexity to the situation. It is worth noting that the impact of La Niña on snowfall can vary depending on its strength. Interestingly, a recent study focusing on weak La Niña years revealed that these weather patterns typically result in increased snowfall for the Dakotas and Minnesota. On the other hand, when La Niña is strong, it tends to bring the most snow to Washington and Oregon.
Furthermore, although a recent map suggests that Tennessee typically receives less snow than average during weak La Niña winters, meteorologist Alex Libby from News 2 conducted a thorough analysis of data from the Nashville International Airport. Surprisingly, his findings revealed above-average snowfall during the majority of the weak La Niña winters that he examined.
The upcoming winter is expected to bring warmer temperatures to many parts of the country, with the Southwest and Gulf states in particular having a 50% to 60% chance of experiencing above-average temperatures.
Several states are currently experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions, and a warm, dry winter would only exacerbate the situation.