Meteorologists are closely monitoring a storm system that is forming in the Central Plains. This storm system is expected to trigger the first regional severe weather outbreak of the season. According to the Storm Prediction Center, there is an “enhanced risk” or a 30 percent chance of severe thunderstorms in the orange area on the map, which stretches from Louisiana to Arkansas and extends east to Mississippi. Additionally, there are slight and marginal risk areas that extend further east into Georgia and north into Missouri.
Weather models like the European model above indicate the intensification of the developing Central Plains storm and its subsequent movement towards the Great Lakes. The presence of powerful upper-level winds, reaching speeds of 100 knots, will result in a region of significant wind shear across the Gulf States. This favorable atmospheric condition not only supports the formation of severe thunderstorms but also increases the likelihood of tornadoes. In fact, there is a 10 percent chance of tornadoes with EF-2 strength or higher (105 MPH+) occurring, which can cause substantial destruction. The primary period of concern will be from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.
SEVERE WEATHER RISKS SHIFT TO EAST COAST WEDNESDAY FROM GEORGIA NORTH TO NEW JERSEY
The focus shifts to the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday as the storm progresses towards the Saint Lawrence River Valley in Southeastern Canada. Additionally, the cold front associated with this storm is expected to move eastward towards the East Coast. According to the Storm Prediction Center, there is a potential for severe weather along the coast, stretching from Georgia to the Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. While there is a possibility of tornadoes, the risk appears to be lower compared to the Gulf States and Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. As the storm system continues to develop, we will closely monitor its progress and provide updates on any significant changes in the weather outlook.