Game theory plays a crucial role in geopolitics, especially during periods of conflict. The debacle surrounding Biden policies in Ukraine demonstrates that it is not an outdated concept.
Europe experienced the longest period of peace between its major powers in history, lasting over 70 years since the end of World War II. This surpassed its previous record of 43 years from 1871 to 1914. However, this era of peace came to an end during the Obama administration, which shifted away from deterrence and instead emphasized “proportionate response” and economic sanctions.
Team Biden’s incompetence has not only prolonged the Ukraine war but also heightened its level of danger, putting domestic political support at risk. It is truly baffling how their post-modernist neurotic bumbling has resulted in such dire consequences. What’s even more concerning is the unintended dynamic that has developed as a result of their incompetence. Their weakness has emboldened Putin, leading him to engage in blustering and bluffing tactics. Witnessing the West’s visible trembling in response to his nuclear threats, Putin has become increasingly cavalier in his actions.
However, considering the dire condition of Russian weaponry and the challenges in maintaining nuclear arms, Putin could not simply assume that any particular device would function effectively. A failure would be an embarrassing and catastrophic outcome.
Therefore, any genuine nuclear threat would necessitate prior testing, which requires significant preparation time. These preparations would likely be evident well in advance of any potential nuclear attack. Furthermore, crossing the threshold of nuclear warfare would be an enormous gamble, as it would jeopardize the support of not only China but also other nations.
As a result, Team Biden inadvertently sparked a cycle of escalation instead of achieving a delicate balance of fear or a strategic equilibrium, which is a crucial objective in game theory behavior.
Biden’s approach in the early stages of the war should have been clear and straightforward. He should have publicly announced a doctrine stating that Ukraine would have the right to defend itself against Russian aggression using American weapons. For instance, if Russia were to launch missiles 100 miles into Ukrainian territory, Ukraine would be justified in responding by doing the same into Russian territory. This would have sent a strong message and established a deterrent against further Russian aggression.
By choosing how to prosecute his war, Vladimir Putin would have revealed his red lines, effectively eliminating the endless public debate in the West over his possible “red lines.” This would have placed responsibility squarely upon him for any destruction that occurred on Russian soil, giving him the initiative on the level of violence.
The Russians have been acting with absolute impunity, displaying a lack of fear and consequences. Their actions include indiscriminate bombing of Ukraine, massacring civilians, destroying energy infrastructure, and potentially using poison gas. In contrast, the Ukrainians have been restrained from attacking Russian troop formations on Russian soil, as they prepare to advance on Ukrainian positions. This situation is pure idiocy and lacks any sense of balance.
This has led to a dangerous cycle of events in Western politics, commonly referred to as the “doom loop.” The actions taken by Russia in Ukraine, such as the destruction of vital infrastructure and economic assets, have necessitated increased financial assistance to keep Ukraine afloat.
Consequently, the West incurs higher costs, eroding domestic political backing for providing aid to Ukraine. This, in turn, creates a favorable environment for further acts of violence by Russia.
The Biden administration was never able to figure this out, showing their lack of understanding.
The left has been vocal about their concerns that President-elect Donald Trump will betray Ukraine. However, Trump and his national security team have a clear understanding of the concept of deterrence and are not easily intimidated. In fact, Trump is known for his skill in playing the game of chicken, surpassing even his fellow American politicians. The Ukrainians themselves acknowledge the incompetence of the Biden national security team.
Trump despises losing. His incoming team has no intention of conceding anything to anyone as they begin their tenure. There is uncertainty regarding Trump’s next move. However, compared to the current administration, which is filled with inept poker players, Ukraine and America would benefit more from a strong and determined Team Trump than a feeble and aimless Team Biden.
Keith Naughton, co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant, brings a wealth of experience and expertise to his field.