Texas, Florida, Arizona, and Idaho are projected to gain congressional seats following the 2030 census, according to population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau analyzed by Election Data Services.
If apportionment were conducted today, Texas and Florida would each gain two seats, while Arizona and Idaho would gain one seat each. Conversely, states like California, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, and Oregon are poised to lose seats, with California expected to lose two and the others one each.
These shifts could significantly impact the political landscape, as states losing seats, such as California and New York, are Democratic strongholds. In contrast, the states gaining seats tend to lean Republican, potentially bolstering the GOP’s position in the narrowly divided House, where Republicans currently hold a slim 217-215 majority.
With changes in representation likely to favor right-leaning states, Republicans could strengthen their hold on the lower chamber, further shaping national policy in the years ahead.